Can Jules Bailey Challenge Ted Wheeler?
Friday, November 27, 2015
Jules Bailey; via Jules Bailey's Facebook page.
“I originally considered running and said no. I was just coming out of paternity leave had a lot to do at Multnomah County, and really believed that Portland would see a strong race,” Bailey told GoLocal. “Over the weeks as that didn’t happen people reached out to me and I thought myself that we need a campaign, we need a debate, we need a discussion.”
Bailey said that a nightly ritual with his son, August, helped him decide to run.
“We were going through a bedtime routine he has every night,” Bailey explained, “and part of that routine is I sing him a song. The song talks about being courageous, helping others and stepping up. I realized I’d be a hypocrite if I wanted him to grow up and do those things, but I didn’t take the opportunity to step up and serve my city when I had a chance.”
Rebecca Tweed, Political and Communications Director for State Street Solutions, told GoLocal that Bailey has the best chance to beat Wheeler of any of the rumored candidates in the race.
“Of all the challengers thus far, Bailey presents to me to be the most competitive,” Tweed said. “Bailey is well-known in Portland and has extensive political and campaign experience in Portland as commissioner and also as a former State Representative in the area. His entering the race will increase the profile of this campaign, and he should be taken seriously.”
Ted Wheeler
“He Will Be Taken Seriously”
Ted Wheeler
John Horvick, Vice President and Political Director of DHM Research, told GoLocal that Bailey will be considered as a serious challenger to Ted Wheeler.
“He will be taken seriously by the voters of Portland, and the city’s opinion leaders will give him a look,” Horvick said of Bailey. “He has support from the progressive left in the city and that really makes him a viable candidate here in Portland.”
Jim Moore, Director of the Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation at Pacific University, told GoLocal that Bailey’s experience will serve him well, as he must start his campaign quickly and decisively.
“Bailey brings electoral success to the race. He knows how to run a campaign, raise money, and craft a message. He also has people who have worked on his previous campaigns,” Moore said. “He needs to mobilize a lot of more leftist liberals, many of whom will be quite happy with Wheeler's candidacy. In addition, he needs to show he can raise a significant amount of money to get his message out to the entire city.”
Tweed agreed.
“Besides experience with policy-making and leadership within the immediate Portland community already, Bailey has strong connections with voters because he is familiar to them,” Tweed said. “He likely has a database of grassroots support that Wheeler does not and that will give him an advantage in gaining momentum and having a strong outreach campaign.”
Jules Bailey and his son August; via Jules Bailey's Facebook page
An Uphill Battle
Jules Bailey and his son August; via Jules Bailey's Facebook page
Horvick said that while Bailey presents a more leftist platform than Wheeler, the pair’s similar resumes may make it difficult for Bailey to make his own mark on the campaign trail.
“Even though he does have a good reputation among the left wing of the Portland Democratic party, in many ways he and Wheeler are similar,” Horvick said. “They both went to the same school and received their education in economics. When you look at them side by side, there are a lot of similarities.”
Moore agreed, saying that despite Bailey’s strength, the race remains Wheeler’s to lose, particularly given the similarities between the two candidates.
“Wheeler is still the prohibitive favorite to win outright in the May primary,” Moore said. “In terms of issues, it is hard to see what angle he would go for that would significantly differentiate him from Wheeler.”
Tweed said that in order for Bailey to have a real chance at beating Wheeler, he will need to show signs of strength in the early goings of his campaign.
“Because Wheeler has done so well raising money and obtaining endorsements to this point, with no signs of slowing down, Bailey will still need to have a strong outpouring of support from the beginning of his campaign to show that he is taking this seriously, that he is not intimidated by Wheeler’s successes thus far, and that he has the backing necessary to win,” Tweed said. “He will need to solidify some key endorsements and raise a lot of capital to show he has significant support in his campaign, right from the start.”
For his part, Bailey said he plans to limit campaign contributions to limit campaign contributions to $250 per donor. He also said that he plans to tackle the issues of homelessness and inequality head on during his campaign.
“We have an affordability crisis. Working families can no longer afford to live in this city,” Bailey said. “It’s especially difficult for people of color. For too long, communities of color have been pushed to the side and left behind. They are communities that are suffering in a lot of different ways. We are failing them, and we need to talk about that.”
Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall
Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler was joined by the press and many close friends, family members, and supporters on the rooftop of Revolution Hall off of SE Stark so that he could officially make his candidacy announcement for Portland mayor in the 2016 mayoral race.
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