Ted Wheeler Looks More Like an Incumbent Than a Newcomer

Monday, January 25, 2016

Once again, Portland’s Mayoral race currently contains two (perhaps soon to be three) major candidates, both vying for the office for the first time. Despite both men’s status as newcomers ,however, experts told GoLocal that one candidate is acting more like an incumbent than a challenger.

Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler has been the heir apparent to current Mayor Charlie Hales over the last few months, giving him an advantage in the eyes of voters.

“Wheeler has been acting like an incumbent and Bailey has been acting as the challenger,” Jim Moore, Director of the Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation at Pacific University, told GoLocal. “Until we see credible polling, that dynamic is probably going to hold strong.”

How Did He Get Here?

Wheeler assumed the position of an established and favored candidate after the way he entered the race. He quickly amassed donations, support and endorsements from some of Portland’s biggest political figures, forcing Charlie Hales out of the race in the fall.

For months after Hales’ departure, Wheeler stood as the only true candidate to assume Hales’ office as Mayor. Time and time again candidates that were seen as potential opponents to Wheeler, whether because of recommendations from others, as was the case with Deborah Kafoury and other potential candidates or based upon their own words, as was the case with Jesse Cornett, decided against running against Wheeler.

Wheeler has also been sure to cement his place as the established candidate by dictating the steps that other candidates must follow. In February he announced a series of a half-dozen Mayoral Forums, debates on each of Portland’s major issues, set to begin this week, that other candidates then joined.

Just this week, Wheeler signed a pledge self-outlawing so-called “dark money”—contributions and fundraising from political action committees—and called on other candidates to do so as well.

“This agreement puts into writing what I promised the day I launched my campaign to be the next mayor of Portland,” Wheeler said in his announcement, challenging Bailey and his other challengers to follow his lead once again. “I’m committed to an open and transparent government, one that will not be influenced by powerful outside interests – this is how I put action behind my words.”

What Does it Mean?

According to Moore, Wheeler’s spot as the “incumbent candidate,” gives him an advantage as the candidates get closer and closer to the election.

“It’s Wheeler’s race to lose at this point,” Moore said. “The other candidates all ahve an uphill fighting against him.”

However, Wheeler’s established status also makes him easy to criticize for smaller candidats, Moore said, and may leave him vulnerable during the debates.

“Wheeler is acting like the incumbent,” Moore said. “So he has most to lose. Bailey is acting like the challenger; so he as most to gain. Until we see credible poll numbers, that dynamic will probably hold through all these forums.”

Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall

Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler was joined by the press and many close friends, family members, and supporters on the rooftop of Revolution Hall off of SE Stark so that he could officially make his candidacy announcement for Portland mayor in the 2016 mayoral race.

Ted Wheeler Looks More Like an Incumbent Than a Newcomer

How Did He Get Here?

What Does it Mean?

Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall

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