“The Sunday Political Brunch”—March 6, 2016

Sunday, March 06, 2016

Mark Curtis, Senior Political Analyst

We are on the presidential campaign trail again this weekend in Kentucky. The Bluegrass State is one of five holding weekend primaries or caucuses – the others are Kansas, Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

BREAKING NEWS at 10:45 p.m., EST: Donald Trump wins the Kentucky Caucuses with 35% of the vote; to Ted Cruz at 31%; Marco Rubio with 17%; and, John Kasich at 15%.

“The Final Four” – Dr. Ben Carson dropped out, so it’s now down to the final four: Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH).

“Minnesota for Marco” – Rubio finally won a primary, capturing the contest in Minnesota on Super Tuesday. He was probably as surprised as anyone, as he had focused his efforts and hopes on Virginia, where he finished a competitive second place. Still his win in Minnesota made be chuckle about the movie, “Fargo!” which was filmed there. It made me wonder if they made a sequel, “Fargo 2!” would Rubio be stuffing Donald Trump in the wood chipper at the end? (Rent the movie, if you missed the joke!) Anyway, if Rubio loses Florida on March 15, his campaign is over.

“Trump v. Romney” – The weird event of the week was Mitt Romney delivering a blistering attack on Donald Trump, and then Trump returning the remarks in kind. Are average voters really interested in two extremely rich white guys carping at each other? My guess is they aren’t. And, as with all bad news leveled at the Trump campaign, his poll numbers will probably rise on the Romney attacks. Trump – for now – continues to defy gravity. The whole Romney v. Trump feud is an odd waste of time.

“Cruz Still Alive” – Cruz won Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska, so he is still very much alive. The problem for him, is that few leaders in his own party like him. In the end, the Republican establishment is now asking itself, “Who do we like less?” The answer – to one of the oddest political questions I’ve ever heard – is Cruz. If Rubio drops out, will he toss his support to Cruz? Maybe, perhaps because of the nasty Trump-Rubio feud. Rubio, while no fan of Cruz either, would love to torpedo Trump.

“Kasich Kentucky” – Kasich must do well in Kentucky, and in Michigan on March 8, and he must win in his home state of Ohio on March 15, otherwise he’s toast. But he is still viable as the vice presidential running mate - whether he’ll be paired with Trump, Cruz, or Rubio - and all three would likely welcome him. Again, the Republican Party only wins the White House when it carries Ohio. Right now in Kentucky, though, Kasich is polling in last place, with just six percent of the vote in his neighboring state.

“Cross-Eyed Christie” – The other odd event this week, was Chris Christie introducing Trump’s victory press conference in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump’s people made a smart move, putting him on stage with all of those flags behind him. Honestly, he looked presidential. But Christie stood in the background the whole time, fidgeting with his eye’s alternately twitching, or staring glowingly at Trump. As a viewer it made me uncomfortable at times; and laughing at others. Why didn’t he just sit down? Look for this as a Saturday Night Live skit soon!

“Sanders Sails” – Bernie Sanders made a good run for it, but is about to fade. Sadly, he missed by just one state. For weeks I said he must win Vermont, Colorado, Minnesota, and Massachusetts on Super Tuesday. He nailed the first three, but missed on the big prize in the Bay State. He needed Massachusetts as a viable route to take out Clinton, and he missed.

“Clinton” – Hillary Clinton had a strong Super Tuesday, and is on a glide path to the nomination. The five big states on March 15 – Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio, should all be strong for Clinton. She still won’t have the nomination delegate total, but she’ll be so far ahead, only scandal could stop her. But, I still think Biden is looking for a wedge to get in.

“Why All of the Matters” –Right now, it’s all about momentum, viability and eventuality. That’s why this past week, Ben Carson said he saw, “no path forward” for his campaign. The time is nearing for all candidates to “know when to hold ‘em; and know when to fold ‘em.” For most, the magic date is March 15.

Has your mind changed? Let us know by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com