Who Has the Upper Hand in a Debate: Charlie Hales or Ted Wheeler?

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Brendan Murray, GoLocalPDX Contributor

Ted Wheeler

The race for Mayor of Portland is heating up. Ted Wheeler, the current Oregon State Treasurer (D) officially entered the race earlier this month, and has challenged his opponent, incumbent Mayor Charlie Hales, on his effectiveness and leadership.

Now, experts are wondering who will control the debates when the two face off on the same stage.

In the 2012 race for Mayor, between Hales and Jefferson Smith, a former Oregon State Representative, the pair often showed off differences in style and personality, while agreeing about many issues.

Hales used the debates to emphasize his experience and cool-headed leadership on the way to his victory. Smith, on the other hand, often appealed to voters’ conscience and emotions, described by voters as the more “passionate” of the two.

That could once again be the case, according to Rebecca Tweed, the Political and Communications Director for State Street Solutions. Tweed told GoLocal she expects the candidates to showcase differences in management style and philosophy for running the Rose City.

“We often see candidates with similar platforms, and I think that will be the case here,” Tweed said. “What voters have to decide is who they think is most credible, and who will be able to get the job done.”

The Importance of Debates

Jonathan Horvick, Vice President and Political Director of DHM Research, told GoLocal he expects the debates will be important for decision makers and community leaders, who will be looking closely for distinctions between the two candidates.

“A debate will give both candidates an opportunity to define themselves and their agendas with the voters,” he said. “On paper, these are both very similar candidates. It’s going to be about who would be more effective as a leader.”

Tweed said that debates have a large impact on mayoral elections in general, particularly when the race features experienced candidates like Hales and Wheeler. She said that while no candidate wins or loses an election as the result of one debate, she expects early debates to set the terms of the race as it unfolds.

“I think debates are a great way for candidates to garner more interest in their candidacy,” she said. “To get voters to read or learn more about them, or show up at an event. It sets the tone for voters as to what’s going to come next.”

Charlie Hales

Why Wheeler Will Win

Tweed, of State Street Solutions, said she expects Wheeler will come into the event with plenty of energy and momentum behind him as the challenging candidate. She also said she expects Wheeler to go on the attack against Hales, and show voters what change would come from a vote for Ted Wheeler.

“Wheeler will be looking toward the future and talking about all the things he’s going to do differently,” Tweed said. “He will talk about the new vision he has, and how he can pair that with his experience at the State level and how he can bring all those levels of knowledge to Portland.”

Horvick, who said he had seen both candidates debate during earlier campaigns, said he thought Wheeler would focus on Hales’ shortcomings and what he failed to accomplish during his first term, and why Wheeler would be the better choice.

“This is one of his opportunities to define himself and what he would do as opposed to Mayor Hales,” Horvick said of Wheeler. “I would imagine that he is going to say Hales has not done enough on certain things, or that promises haven’t been kept.”

Hales Playing Defense

Tweed said she expects Hales to be forced onto the defensive during much of any debate, largely due to his position as an incumbent.

“He will naturally be on the defensive,” Tweed said of Hales. “His actions are going to be items up for conversation, and he’s going to have to go back and defend what he has done.”

Horvick, of DHM, agreed.

“I think that Charlie Hales is going to have to defend his record because he is the incumbent,” Horvick said. “These debates are going to be more about doing things like that than it is about radically different visions for the city, as these guys are both Democrats.”

Tweed also said she believed Hales would lean on his knowledge of the city as its current Mayor and a former City Commissioner.

“I think he’ll focus on his experience,” Tweed said. “Hales has been the Mayor and a City Commissioner. He will reiterate all the things that he’s done that have worked, and try to remind voters that, on the whole, they are pleased with what he’s done.”

Related Slideshow: Charlie Hales’s Top 15 Donors

Portland's mayoral election is still over a year away, but that hasn't stopped incumbent mayor Charlie Hales from launching his campaign. Thus far, Hales has raised over $88,000 in donations from more than 60 donors, whose contributions have ranged from $100 to $5,000 each. Using state campaign finance records, GoLocalPDX compiled a list of Hale's 15 biggest donors, many of which are major power players in Portland's development industry.

Who Has the Upper Hand in a Debate: Charlie Hales or Ted Wheeler?

The Importance of Debates

Charlie Hales Why Wheeler Will Win

Hales Playing Defense

Related Slideshow: Charlie Hales’s Top 15 Donors

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