Why No Challenger for Wheeler is Bad News for Portland
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Ted Wheeler
“I think it is very concerning,” John Horvick Vice President and Political Director of DHM Research, told GoLocal. “In general, people are woefully under informed on most major issues. Campaigns are a way to inform people about what’s going on. When we don’t have that process, the public is really disadvantaged.”
As GoLocal has reported, leaders have looked for Wheeler’s challenger without prevail. In his announcement, Hales said hoped “that several qualified candidates will seek the office of Mayor. There are some dynamic new leaders in our community, and I’m excited to see who steps up.”
Even Wheeler said he hoped to have a new opponent in the race. He said after Hales’ departure he said he was still looking forward to a “competitive race” and indicated he expected a challenge.
So far, however, all rumored candidates for the job have declined to run, in a possible sign of Wheeler’s stranglehold on the race. Deborah Kafoury, Melissa Madrigal, Jennifer Willamson and others have all declined to enter the race in Hales absence.
Bad News for Portland
Horvick said that while elections, particularly city elections, can become combative or turn ugly, they are an integral part of the political process.
“Campaigns help frame issues and perspectives and rally people around one side or another,” Horvick said. “That can be a contentious process, but it is really important. It’s important for democracy that that process can occur. If it doesn’t, it can become a real issue.”
Jim Moore, Director of Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation, told GoLocal he agreed that Portland would be hurt by the lack of a true campaign.
“I think there’s a lot to be said for the argument that Portlanders lose out when they don’t have the chance to move through a real, competitive election,” Moore said. “If Wheeler is able to go in essentially unchallenged they will miss out on that.”
Wheeler Weakened
Horvick said that the lack of a challenger harms not just the people of Portland, but Wheeler as well.
“It’s important for policy makers to have won by making an argument,” Horvick said. “If Wheeler wins this election in May without a challenger, he’ll have seven months before he takes office and then will have to be ready to govern on day one. It will be much more difficult for him to find people to rally around him.”
Moore said that without the clear base of supporters than can come from a hard-fought election victory, it will be more difficult to lead the city.
“He will come into office without a clear group of people behind him, and that can really be a detriment,” Moore said. “He’ll have plenty of endorsements of people that say they are behind him, but we really won’t know what that means. They really won’t have any choice other than to support him.”
Moore added that while the lack of a campaign could allow Wheeler to take office with a clean record, it could also trap him.
“On one hand, he’ll enter office with kind of a blank slate and have a chance to leave his fingerprints quickly,” Moore said. “On the other hand, he could easily alienate people without realizing he’s alienating them and he could see support plummet quickly.”
John Horvick
Who Could it Be?
John Horvick
Horvick speculated that Wheeler could be vulnerable to a challenge from the left.
“We’ve already seen evidence of it. Bernie Sanders had an incredible turnout at the Moda Center,” Horvick said. “If someone could challenge Wheeler in that same way that Sanders has challenged a more establishment Democrat like Hillary Clinton, I think they would have a lot of successes.”
Len Bergstein, a political analyst and President of Northwest Strategies, Inc., agreed with Horvick, saying that Portland would respond to a candidate that bucked the status quo of politicians in the area.
“Both Ted Wheeler and Charlie Hales are just middle-aged white guys, and I think there’s a lot of people that want to see something different in the city,” Bergstein told GoLocal. “I think there is a big hunger in Portland for someone who would fill a different lane.”
Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall
Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler was joined by the press and many close friends, family members, and supporters on the rooftop of Revolution Hall off of SE Stark so that he could officially make his candidacy announcement for Portland mayor in the 2016 mayoral race.
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