Half of Seventeen is Nine: A Look at the Seattle Seahawks Playoff Odds
Saturday, November 14, 2015
The advanced analytics website Football Outsiders has added playoff projections this year. The playoff odds are calculated by simulating the season 25,000 times using Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). As DVOA changes over the course of the season, the simulation is run again weekly to project the remainder of the schedule while taking into account each team’s actual record.
So for instance, the Seahawks playoff odds actually improved 10.2% while they were on a bye, largely from week eight losses by the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. Currently, the DVOA fueled projections have the Seahawks with a mean number of wins of 8.8 and a 44.0% chance of making the playoffs, most likely as a wildcard.
The NFC Playoff Picture
In the NFC as a whole, the team with a 72.3% chance of nailing down the one seed is the Carolina Panthers. They also have a 99.8% chance overall of making the playoffs. The current favorite for the two seed is the Cardinals at 36.9% and 94.4% to make the playoffs in any capacity. With a 95.5% chance of making the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers are the most likely three seed at 38.6%. Which leaves the four seed to whoever wins the NFC East. The current “favorite” is the Philadelphia Eagles over the New York Giants, 55.6% to 32.8%.
This leaves the wild cards. Currently, the Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings lead there with a 56.4% chance and 46.2A% chance of making the playoffs, respectively. The Seahawks are not far behind with a 44.0% of making the playoffs. One complication, however, is that if the Vikings were to overtake the Packers – both teams are 6-2 – the Packers would then be an odds on favorite to take one of the wildcard spots. If the Seahawks can’t rally to take the division, the final wild card is their best shot of getting in.
Teams to Keep an Eye On
So as Seahawks fans get ready for the division rival Cardinals on Sunday and a chance to close the gap in the NFC West, they should also be keeping tabs on the Vikings who play the Oakland Raiders on Sunday and the Falcons (on a bye) going forward.
Related Slideshow: 12 of the Greatest Sports Movies of All Time
Hank Stern ranks his top twelve favorite sports films.
#8 The Longest Yard
Not the remake with Adam Sandler and Chris Rock. But the hilarious original with Burt Reynolds and Eddie Albert as a wonderfully villainous warden who pits the guards against the inmates in a grudge football game that includes former Green Bay linebacker Ray Nitschke and other ex-football players like Sonny Sixkiller and Joe Kapp, both stalwart Pac-8 quarterbacks long, long ago.
- Seattle Seahawks Shut Out Chicago Bears for First Win of the Season
- Seattle Seahawks To Russell Wilson: Here’s To Four More Years
- Seattle Seahawks: Looming Showdown With Arizona Will Make Or Break Their Season
- Spotted In Portland: Seattle Seahawks’ Richard Sherman
- Seattle Seahawks Salary Cap
- Seattle Seahawks Marshawn Lynch Finally Receives $75k Media Fine
- Seattle Seahawks Back-up Defense Showcase Talent in Preseason Games
- Seattle Seahawks Draftland: Where the First Round Doesn’t Matter
- Seattle Seahawks Face Criticism Over Draft Pick
- Seattle Seahawks Lose Game In Overtime to Cincinnati Bengals
- The Grudge Match: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
- The Leading Contenders to Replace the Seahawks’ Pro Bowl-Sized Hole
- Training Camp is a Must Go for Seattle Seahawks Fans
- WATCH: Seahawks’ Kam Chancellor Forces Game-Saving Fumble
- Which Seattle Seahawks Players Belong On The Team’s Mount Rushmore?
- Why Supporting the Seahawks Out of Solidarity is Wrong
- Three Things The Seattle Seahawks Are Doing Wrong
- The Seattle Seahawks’ Newest Solution to an Old Problem
- The New NFL Siberia: Playing Guard for the Seattle Seahawks
- The Seahawks Don’t Need an NFL Wild Card
- The Seattle Seahawks Are Back In Command
- The Seattle Seahawks Look at their Defensive Line Options
- Seattle Seahawks are a Team in Transition
- Seahawks Vs. Packers: An Improbable Win
- He Said / She Said: Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
- He Said / She Said: Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
- He Said / She Said: Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
- Grand Central’s 12th Man Loaf Celebrates Seahawks’ Super Bowl Appearance
- Game Review: Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
- Carolina Panthers Vs. Seahawks: What to Watch For
- Game Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
- Game Review: Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
- He Said / She Said: Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
- He Said / She Said: Seattle Seahawks’ Second-Half Outlook
- Player Profile: Seattle Seahawks WR Rookie Tyler Lockett
- Red Robin Offering Free Burgers to Seattle Seahawks Fans
- Seahawks Get Beat in Overtime - See How the Rest of the NFL Performed
- Only One Thing Can Stop a Seattle Seahawks Dynasty in 2015
- On the Bright Side… Thoughts Through Week 6 About the Seahawks
- Here We Go Again: Green Bay Packers Visit Seattle Seahawks
- Kam Chancellor Needs to Honor His Contract with the Seattle Seahawks
- New England Patriots Defeat Seattle Seahawks 28-24 in Super Bowl XLIX
- New Seahawks TE Jimmy Graham Clicking with Russell Wilson
- 3 Things to Watch in the Seattle Seahawks’ 1st Preseason Game