NFC West: Keep Expectations Level With Early Season Results
Saturday, September 19, 2015
The division-mates face some tough matchups yet again in week two, and we'll see if their first matchups were indications of what to expect this year, or if this week is the true reveal...or somewhere in the middle.
It is only week two, and while it is exciting that football is back, it is a little early to start getting too excited about your team's chances or too nervous about their potential roadblocks. It's a marathon, not a race, and nobody wins a Super Bowl in September.
So don't go getting too boastful over a week one victory, and on the flip side don't have several panic attacks if your team didn't emerge victorious in the first part of a potentially 21 part season.
Let's take a look at how the four teams fared a week ago and what you can look for this week.
Seattle (0-1) at Green Bay (1-0):
After narrowly losing on the road and in overtime, most teams would be looking for an easy follow up game to get their winning mojo back.There aren't any "Taco bye weeks" in the NFL, and even if there were, Seattle would certainly not want one when they have a chance to deny the Packers a cold dish of revenge in response to the outcome of the NFC Championship game.
The Rams routinely punched them in the mouth in week one and kept refusing to yield to the reigning NFC champs, even forcing overtime after a very shaky second half on both sides. Seattle couldn't produce a score in overtime, and the Rams made their point where it counted most, the loss column. Now Seattle travels to Lambeau Field to face the NFC runner-ups, who were unbeaten at home a season ago.
Matchups to watch:
1. Packers WRs vs Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas - Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is as accurate and aggressive as they come, but is without his best target in Jordy Nelson. Randall Cobb spends the majority of his time in the slot, the jury is still out on the greatness of Davante Adams, and it's too early to tell if newly resigned James Jones will be a season-long contributor. Even without Nelson, Green Bay is extremely dangerous, and Sherman and Thomas will need to work doubly hard to ensure Rodgers misses Nelson and struggles to find any holes in the secondary with the receivers he has left.
2. Eddie Lacy vs Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner - Mebane and Wagner are two of the best run-stuffers in the business and Lacy has had trouble finding consistent inside running room against the Seattle front seven. Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor is unlikely to end his holdout or be awarded a new deal in time to be on the field Sunday night, so there may be a little more space, but the odds are that Lacy is contained. James Starks is the shiftier and quicker runner; even though he gives up size and strength to Lacy he generally finds tight or hidden spaces that Lacy doesn't look for or can't get to so it will be interesting to see how many touches each gets as the game progresses.
3. Clay Matthews vs Russell Wilson & Jimmy Graham - The NFL's version of Thor certainly appeared as though he tried to hammer Wilson out of the NFC title game, but his controversial hit didn't keep Wilson from being productive long enough to take the Packers to victory (though it sure came awfully close). Wilson now has a new target in Graham and the "freak 2.0" has given GB fits in the past trying to defend him. Matthews may be asked to trail Graham and pass him off if he goes deep, but don't be surprised to see Clay valiantly charging after the taller and faster Graham on must-have downs. If Matthews is glued to Seattle's most dangerous passing weapon, look for Wilson to exploit running lanes for himself or to find Marshawn Lynch running a route coming out of the backfield.
Who wins - Green Bay by 3. It will be a very close and hard-fought war, but the simple truth is that Green Bay is a better team at home than Seattle is on the road and Jimmy Graham won't be enough to avoid the absences of Chancellor and Byron Maxwell while Wilson and the offense break in two new linemen.
Arizona (1-0) at Chicago (0-1):
The Cardinals looked elite in their defeat of the Saints, but let's not pat Arizona on the back just yet. The Saints have no true number one wideout, no playmaker at TE, an average running game, and their defense is inconsistent at best. The Cards face a very capable Bears team that can make this game a shootout in a hurry and we'll see if an aging QB and a questionable Arizona offense can keep up.
Matchups to watch
1. Alshon Jeffrey vs Patrick Peterson - PP21 made Saints speedster Brandin Cooks look human in their week one showdown, as Cooks registered only four catches for 49 yards. Jeffrey has the size and strength to win some jump balls against the smaller and slimmer Peterson, but that will depend an awful lot on how his calf is feeling before game time as he nearly sat against the Packers due to the same ailment. If he is 100%, the star receiver should be fun to watch going toe to toe with one of the league's best cover corners.
2. Matt Forte vs Cardinals front seven - Forte chewed up and spit out the Packers' defense last week, racking up over 100 yards rushing in the first half alone. He won't have such an easy go of it this week, as the Cards held Mark Ingram to just 24 rushing yards but did allow him to sneak away with 98 receiving yards.
3. Carson Palmer vs Bears secondary - Old number 3 can still sling it, but his release time and accuracy have declined over the years. The Bears have some work to do in their secondary but made Rodgers work for every chunk he earned a week ago and the offensive line is not exactly winning awards for protecting Palmer. Look for the secondary to hold up just long enough against the Cardinals receivers and that should give the defense and aging pass rusher Jared Allen enough time to add to his career sacks number.
Who wins - Arizona by 10. Chicago has the offensive firepower and a decent defense to stick with the Cards, but a healthy Palmer and a very good defense may be too much if Forte can't get the tough yards. It will be high scoring, but Arizona will be ahead by double digits when it is all over after some tough sledding in the first half.
St. Louis (1-0) at Washington (0-1):
The Rams gave Seattle their best shot and made some good progress toward a winning in an overtime win at home. Things won't be nearly as difficult in week two as they face Washington, who have almost nothing going for them, and may be in the running for TBD #1 overall college QB come draft day.
Matchups to watch:
1. Nick Foles vs Washington secondary - This secondary gave up points like it was going out of style last season, and while it gave Miami some trouble (more credit is due to the front seven and Miami's dismal running game), Foles and his rocket right arm should find some deep pass routes open if he can get time behind an in-progress Rams offensive line. Todd Gurley is still not ready for regular season action, and the rumor is that Tre Mason will start and split time with Benny Cunningham (and Cunningham did fare well against Seattle in a three-down role). Can Foles exploit the Washington defense in a points fest regardless of who is at RB? The signs say yes.
2. Kirk Cousins vs Rams front seven - If the Rams front made mortals out of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, what do you think they can do to the journeyman backup that probably has no business as a starter? Cousins started hot last season after RG3 was hurt but fizzled quickly and even more quickly found himself in a QB controversy with Colt McCoy. His decision making will have to be lightning quick and head coach Jay Gruden had better have a quick-hit passing game ready against arguably the best defensive line in the league.
3. Who Jeff Fisher sends to the coin toss - When the Rams travelled to Washington last season, Fisher made a bold move and sent the players drafted with picks the Rams received in the RG3 trade to greet the Washington captains. The Rams wound up winning in a 24-0 shutout of the home team. Fortune certainly favors the bold. Can history repeat itself if Fisher is willing to slight the home team yet again?
Who wins - St. Louis by 7. Cousins is a fill-in starter at best trying to avoid the Rams' rabid pass rush, Desean Jackson may not be back, Alfred Morris won't have any running room against the stout front seven, and the defense couldn't stop a leaky faucet at this point. Give St. Louis credit, they finally appear ready to be competitive with the elite teams, and ready to squash the bad teams.
San Francisco (1-0) at Pittsburgh (0-1):
The 49ers blitzed and ran their way to victory over Minnesota, making second year QB Teddy Bridgewater look very much like a QB still playing through a full rookie season. They will have Ben Roethlisberger in week two, a veteran and star QB very much acclimated to any defense and very good at finding receivers open and in space, especially if the blitz is coming.
Matchups to watch:
1. Carlos Hyde vs Pittsburgh D - Hyde had his way with a very young and talented Vikings defense last week, racking up over 160 yards and two scores on the ground. Hyde has the size and speed to give any defense fits, but the Steelers appear extra ready to give up easy yards this season with so many new faces and a new DC. If Hyde can help Colin Kaepernick keep up with Big Ben on the scoreboard, this game could be the 49ers to claim late.
2. Pittsburgh WRs vs 49ers secondary - With both starting corners gone from a year ago and few in the league that can stop, let alone slow Antonio Brown in the first place, this could be a messy matchup. With Markus Wheaton on the other side and Darius Heyward-Bey in the slot, there will be no absence of speed or good hands running routes down the field. If Brown gets loose early, he can put up Jerry Rice-type numbers in a hurry.
3. DeAngelo Williams vs 49ers front seven - Williams is a good and shifty runner but NaVarro Bowman is one of the league's best run stuffers. Big Ben and the offense will need good production from Williams after the SF front seven raised many eyebrows around the league in holding Adrian Peterson to under 40 yards on Monday night. If Williams can get some easy yards early and hold up in crunch time, this offense has a chance. If Big Ben is forced to throw more than 30 times, it could open up the chance for more turnover and missed opportunities against a defense hungry to prove they are better than most are ready to believe.
Who wins - Pittsburgh by 6. A pair of late field goals by the Steelers in front of their home crowd will be enough to beat a 49ers team that looks to be better than originally advertised, but not good enough to win against an elite offense on the road.
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