Trail Blazers Mid-Summer Roster Breakdown – Is It Good Enough To Compete?

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Garrett Thornton, Oregon Sports News

This has been one of the most tumultuous off-seasons in NBA history.

In some ways, that is a bit of hyperbole; however, it sure has been a rollercoaster ever since the playoffs.

After the Portland Trail Blazers were eliminated from the playoffs in the second round at the hands of the Golden State Warriors, it was all eyes on General Manager Neil Olshey. What would he do to bolster this young and talented roster? Could this team stay together to continue the upward trajectory that they showed last season?

Although it was a bit of a slow start to the free agency period for the Blazers, they have put together a fairly impressive summer. The team is even more talented and poised than they were last year when they exceeded all expectations.

This roster is still extremely young, the average age is just over 24 years old with just over 3 years of NBA experience. This makes the Blazers one of the youngest teams in the league.

Below I will break down this roster and how I see the playing time being dispersed. Today’s NBA is a lot different than any other era. It is hard to define positions. There aren’t many players in this league that are pigeonholed into playing only one position. Especially with a strategical coach like Terry Stotts, lineups and needs change game by game.

With all of that said, I will break it down into two categories; guards and forwards/centers.

At the top, this is easy to figure out. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are proven commodities that will perform night-in and night-out. Arguably the two of them make up one of the top-3 backcourts in the NBA.

A question that has been on my mind since the Blazers gave Allen Crabbe over $75 million dollars over the next 4 years is if Crabbe can somehow find his way into the starting lineup. Paying him that kind of money is a huge investment. Crabbe is capable of shooting the lights out and would be a great backcourt companion to Lillard. This would then open up the possibility of McCollum coming off the bench at the 6th man and backup point guard.

Now, I am not suggesting that this could or should happen, but I do think it could be a possibility. It would surely change the dynamic of the roster, but would put McCollum squarely in the conversation for 6th man of the year.

After the three at the top, there are question marks. Shabazz Napier looks to be the 3rd string point guard behind Lillard and McCollum, he will play the role that Tim Frazier and Brian Roberts played last year. If Napier doesn’t pan out, however, I think he will be expendable by the trade deadline as the Blazers will look for his replacement.

Pat Connaughton and Luis Montero are both shooters and in Stotts’ system there is a genuine need for shooters. Connaughton is more polished as a basketball player. He is a freak athlete that can shoot, and should be able to develop as a competent defender in the NBA. Montero hasn’t proven much in his short career. He had a terrible summer league and has shown to be a ball-dominant wing, which doesn’t work in a flow-offensive system. I would be surprised if Montero is on the roster at the end of the season.

When the season rolls around you will see heavy minutes and large roles for Lillard, McCollum and Crabbe. The rest of the guards have a lot of work to prove themselves and carve out a role on this team.

As simple as the breakdown was for the guards on this roster, the forwards/centers pose a huge headache. A good headache, if there is such a thing, because there is a ton of depth and versatility in the front court.

The Blazers failed to add the major scoring threat in their front court that everyone thought they would target in free agency. However they added more versatility in Evan Turner, brought back a hopefully healthy Meyers Leonard, and brought in a big-bodied center in Festus Ezeli.

Figuring out the rotation of the front court players is like putting together a 1500 piece jig saw puzzle in dim lighting. I truly believe that this rotation is going to be a moving target throughout the season, especially early on.

Will Stotts go small ball and start Turner at the 3 and Al-Farouq Aminu at the 4? Will Mason Plumlee keep hold of his starting job at center or will Ezeli become the defensive monster he hopes to be? How will a healthy Leonard fit into the rotation? Will Ed Davis still find himself in the rotation as the spark plug? How will Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman get any playing time to develop with so much talent ahead of them?

All of those questions are on the minds of every Blazer fan leading into training camp and into the season. Like I said before, they are all pretty good questions to have. When you have an abundance of talent, you can take a few more risks and try different things. That is a luxury that very few teams have in the league.

My gut feeling tells me that the starting front court will be Turner at the 3, Aminu at the 4, and Plumlee at the 5. Leonard and Ezeli will be the first two big guys off the bench. Davis will spell guys that get into foul trouble and will be able to add a rebounding and energy boost off the bench.

With so many pieces it is hard not to imagine the Blazers being very active at the trade deadline. They will have the first half of the season to solidify a rotation and feel out how Leonard’s shoulder is and how Ezeli’s knees are. I would very much expect the Blazers to move some of their big guys to add draft picks and other assets.

The Blazers have 14 players on the roster right now. With only one more roster spot the Blazers won’t be too active the rest of the summer but will look to add another piece.

I would argue that the Blazers’ biggest need is another versatile point guard. If Lillard or McCollum miss any time it could be incredibly tough for the Blazers to replace them with someone like Napier. There is an outside chance that Turner could play some point guard if needed, but I would look to add another point guard to the roster.

Maurice Harkless is still a restricted free agent. The Blazers own his bird rights and have a good chance of bringing him back. There has been talk that Harkless would take his one-year qualifying offer to come back to Portland and then enter the free agency market next summer. I do think that Harkless will get a big-money offer from a team looking to add talent like Philadelphia or Brooklyn. Portland would be glad to welcome him back on a one-year deal or a reasonably priced longer deal.

Cliff Alexander was waived by the Blazers to make room for the signing of Festus Ezeli. Alexander played for the Blazers in summer league, and played well. There is an outside chance that the Blazers will bring Alexander back on a one-year deal to be the 15th man, but I don’t see him playing a role with Vonleh and Davis in front of him on the bench.

Chris Kaman is a free agent, and one of the most interesting characters in the league. I don’t expect Kaman to be back with the Blazers. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kaman transitioned into a coaching career, or disappeared into the woods.

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Trail Blazers Mid-Summer Roster Breakdown – Is It Good Enough To Compete?

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