Welcome! Login | Register
 

Man Burglarizes Home, Sexually Assaults Woman in Northeast Portland—Man Burglarizes Home, Sexually Assaults Woman in Northeast…

Portland Ranked Among Best Big Cities to Live in—Portland Ranked Among Best Big Cities to Live…

Weiss: House Budget Committee Plan Calls for Privatization of Medicare—Weiss: House Budget Committee Plan Calls for Privatization…

Sunday Political Brunch: The Senate Scramble - July 23, 2017—Sunday Political Brunch: The Senate Scramble - July…

Two Types Of “Breaking News” Trades—Two Types Of “Breaking News” Trades

Fit for Life: The Cycle of Life—Fit for Life: The Cycle of Life

Fecteau: The Dumb & Dumber Approach to Healthcare—Fecteau: The Dumb & Dumber Approach to Healthcare

What To Take From The 2017 NBA Summer League—What To Take From The 2017 NBA Summer…

Weiss: Social Security, Medicare Are Solvent..For Now—Weiss: Social Security, Medicare Are Solvent..For Now

Sunday Political Brunch: What is the Real Russian Connection?—July 16, 2017—Sunday Political Brunch: What is the Real Russian…

 
 

“The Sunday Political Brunch” - February 21, 2016

Sunday, February 21, 2016

 

There will be a lot of attention this weekend – and next – about what happens in South Carolina and Nevada. In the giant scope of things, it means little. In the world of politics – like real estate – it’s about location, location, and location. With that in mind, there are two or three other dates and lots of places, which paint a far bigger picture. Let’s brunch on that this week:

BREAKING NEWS at 10pm Eastern Time: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) has suspended his campaign after a dismal finish in South Carolina. This changes the dynamic greatly for the next month. More updated analysis soon here.

“Momentum” – No one is going to win the nomination based on South Carolina, or Nevada, and I don’t believe anyone will drop out (although Dr. Ben Carson is on the bubble, and now Bush is out). These two states are for momentum. Hillary Clinton will win South Carolina, but Bernie Sanders may win Nevada, so it’s a draw for Democrats. Donald Trump will likely win both states by big margins, so the people to watch on the GOP side are the second and third place finishers.

“Super Tuesday” – March 1st is the next big day to watch. It’s called Super Tuesday because 15 states and territories will hold a primary or a caucus. It is heavily skewed to Southern States. For Republicans it will be a race for who is most conservative. For Democrats the race could be very dynamic with Southern states leaning strongly to Clinton, awarding 692 delegates; and states where Bernie Sanders may hold big upsets: Massachusetts; Minnesota; and, Colorado, which collectively award 288 delegates.

“March 15” – It’s the day of the big states – and of the home states. This is the date that will finally clear the deck – at least for Republicans – I believe. Ohio has a primary, where Gov. John Kasich (R) is the favorite son. Florida also votes that day, in what would have been a “political death match” between Bush and Rubio. Only Rubio survives now, but will Bush endorse him in Florida, and elsewhere?. Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina also vote this day. My gut tells me the Republican nominee will be clear after this date.

“Winner Take All, Not!” – Back in 2008, I criticized the Republican Party for continuing to hold “winner-take-all” primaries, which I feel are undemocratic. The most outrageous case was the Missouri Primary in which the top-three finishers were: McCain 33 percent; Huckabee 32 percent; and, Romney 29 percent. Instead of splitting the delegates on a proportional basis, McCain won all 58 delegates, and the others got zero. This year Missouri will award delegates on a more proportional basis, and will only be winner-take-all if one candidate wins over 50 percent of the overall vote. That’s not perfect, but it’s progress!

“Super Delegates” --- The other thing I railed against in 2008 was the Super Delegate program from the Democratic Party. It’s been around for years, mostly to protect the party’s favorite candidate, in the event some fringe, long shot candidate becomes popular. It was very much an attempt in 1988 to keep Rev. Jesse Jackson from being the nominee, and was nearly used on 2008 to hand deliver the nomination to Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama (who had won more votes and delegates). The party wisely re-thought that agenda and Obama won. The Super Delegate system needs to go. Like the winner-take all for Republicans, it is undemocratic.

“The Last Date” – It rarely happens, but if the Clinton-Sanders match up turns into a see-saw battle like Obama-Clinton in 2008, the last date of the primary season may be the decision maker. Obama sealed the nomination in June 2008 on the final primary day in South Dakota and Montana. This year’s final date of June 7 looms even larger, with California awarding 546 delegates and New Jersey 142. Four other states vote as well. It could be a very dramatic finish for Democrats.

For whom are you voting this primary season, or are you still undecided? Let me know by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2016 Mark Curtis Media, LLC

 

Related Slideshow: Presidential Candidate’s Social Media - 2016

Prev Next

Trump Facebook

5.73 Million

Prev Next

Trump Twitter

6.19 Million 

Prev Next

Trump Klout

88 Score 

Prev Next

Cruz Facebook

1.9 Million 

Prev Next

Cruz Twitter

819,000

Prev Next

Cruz Klout

89 Score

Prev Next

Rubio Facebook

1.28 Million 

Prev Next

Rubio Twitter

1.17 Million 

Prev Next

Rubio Klout

81 Score 

Prev Next

Kasich Facebook

178,000

Prev Next

Kasich Twitter

175,000

Prev Next

Kasich Klout

87 Score 

Prev Next

Bush Facebook

329,000

Prev Next

Bush Twitter

476,000

Prev Next

Bush Klout

80 Score

Prev Next

Carson Facebook

5.07 Million

Prev Next

Carson Twitter

1.13 Million

Prev Next

Carson Klout

80 Score 

Prev Next

Clinton Facebook

2.46 Million 

Prev Next

Clinton Twitter

5.4 Million 

Prev Next

Clinton Klout

94 Score 

Prev Next

Sanders Facebook

3.10 Million 

Prev Next

Sanders Twitter

1.44 Million

Prev Next

Sanders Klout

84 Score 

 
 

Related Articles

 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 

X

Stay Connected — Free
Daily Email