slides: Five Oregon GOP Leaders to Watch in 2015

Friday, November 14, 2014

Shelby Sebens, GoLocalPDX contributor

By their own admission, the Oregon GOP is facing a crisis of leadership. After another major defeat in the November elections, some in the party are looking to a new generation of politicians to lead the party to a resurgence.

Democrats picked up more seats than expected in the Oregon legislature, giving them an 18-12 super majority in the Senate - meaning they can raise taxes without Republican votes - and a 35-25 advantage in the House. Just a week after the the election, the GOP was licking its wounds and figuring out how to move forward.

Oregon GOP Chairman Art Robinson took responsibility for the the drastic loss.

“There’s no point in saying the leadership didn’t have a role in this loss, myself, my colleagues,” he said.

See Slideshow Below: Five Oregon GOP Leaders to Watch in 2015

Part of the problem is simply the numbers. Democrats turned out 119,470 more voters than Republicans, according to unofficial results from the Oregon Secretary of State's Office.

"Clearly the Democrats know how to turn out voters better than the Republicans do," said Len Bergstein, president of Northwest Strategies, Inc.

Change Afoot

Republicans say they failed to coordinate well between races across the state.

“We would have seen sweeping victories in Oregon had these volunteers received the needed resources, specifically funding, and a coordination of effort,” Vice Chairman of the Oregon Republican Party Bill Currier said.

“To win in 2016 we have to get started now. we’re going to need a strong, effective state chair,” Currier said, adding the Party elections are in February.

Robinson said he’s not sure yet if he’ll run again.

“I think the future really for the Party, and we’ve been fairly dysfunctional these past two years, is really kind of a rebuilding year,” Clackamas County GOP Chairman John Lee said. “Depending on who becomes Chair of the Party, you may see something bold. A lot of non affiliates feel like they’re left out. I think you might see some bold things when it comes to some of the social issues.”

Critics say it's not surprising that Oregon Republicans failed.

"It just shows the extent to which the Republican party in Oregon has siloed itself," Gresham Mayor Shane Bemis, a Republican, said. "I think you saw Republicans all over the country that were able to organize in terms. There is no Republican Party that seems organized to me or offers a platform that is able to win in Oregon."

Despite organizational problems, Republicans believe that Oregonian support their values. They point to the fact that six out of seven ballot measures they opposed failed with voters. They also opposed the legal marijuana measure that passed with a 10 precent margin.

“When you look at the issues, the people seem to be with us,” Lee said, adding he thinks Republicans will hit the streets and start gathering signatures to get their voices heard.

But Republicans face an uphill battle.

The GOP still need to find candidates and a message that will resonate more heavily blue Multnomah County, a district that comprises nearly 80 percent of registered voters, experts say.

“The Republicans have kind of got to figure out how to come up with a message that does appeal to a little bit more modern and metropolitan constituency if they want to compete statewide," Bergstein said.

Republicans on the Radar
Experts and state Republicans hinted at some potential rising stars as the Party refocuses itself, though who the candidates for 2016 might be is largely up in the air.

“Federally no one has yet stepped forward and statewide I would certainly support Dennis Richardson in another run," Currier said.

"The state party needs to, after we finish our analysis of the current election results, needs to begin recruiting and vetting the best possible candidates for these various offices." he said. At this point in time we don’t have enough information about who is available and what their qualifications would be”

Some veteran state lawmakers including Tim Knopp and Mike McLane rise to the top of minds for leadership roles. And then there are newcomers like Knute Buehler who was elected to the House this November and local officials such as Bemis, who says he loves being mayor but hasn't ruled out a run for higher office.

Bemis said the Republican Party first needs to fine tune its structure to appeal to the middle.

"There is a lot of moderates in the state - a lot, a lot, a lot- that want some changes in the state," he said.

Related Slideshow: Slideshow: Five GOP Leaders to Follow in 2015

As the Oregon GOP works to build their place in the state after their heavy losses in the 2014 mid-term elections, they will look toward members who can help lead the party. Check out five Republican politicians who are becoming the new faces of the GOP.

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Knute Buehler

Buehler is new to the Oregon House, winning by a wide margin in the Bend district over his Democratic opponent Craig Wilhelm. He took 54 percent of the vote in the district left open by Republican Jason Conger.

Buehler, a knee surgeon, is not new to politics, however. He ran for Secretary of State in 2012, getting 43 percent of the vote and losing to Democrat Secretary of State Kate Brown.

Bergstein said Buehler’s statewide campaigning experience makes him a potential player for Republicans.

Lee said Buehler is on the moderate side of the party which could cause rifts with some members but that he has potential to lead in the Oregon GOP.

“He’s, I think, obviously someone for the future,” he said. "Buehler is an advocate for finance reform and touts himself as someone who can cross party lines to get things done."

Photo credit: ballotpedia.com.

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Dennis Richardson

Though he lost his run for governor, some say Dennis Richardson’s political future could still be bright.

The race between Richardson and Kitzhaber was much closer than expected, likely in large part because of the scandal surrounding the governor’s office that broke just weeks before the election.

“I would certainly support Dennis Richardson in another run. He would win with proper funding and coordination of campaign resources with the state party,” Currier said.

Lee said the best thing Richardson did when campaigning came from an answer to a debate question about what he would say to a recently wed gay couple and he responded “congratulations.”

Lee said it’s important for the Republican Party to move on from issues when they are already determined. “When law is the law then let’s worry about those things where we can make difference.”

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Mike McLane

State Rep. Mike McLane was re-elected last week as the Oregon House GOP leader.

He has served the role since 2012 and has gone unchallenged in his leadership. McLane was elected to the House in 2010 and re-elected in 2012. He then rose to leadership. He represents District 55 in Central Oregon.

McLane has served as a leader in the House in the 2012, 2013 and 2014 sessions as well as the 2013 special session. He gets ready to lead again in 2015.

Photo credit: courtesy of the Mike McLane Facebook page.

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John Davis

State Rep. John Davis was recently appointed assistant House Leader.

Bergstein said Davis is “as good as they get in the legislature.”

Davis was elected in 2012 and was noticed for co-sponsoring a bipartisan bill in the last session that cemented the Urban Growth Boundary.

Davis bumped state Rep. Julie Parrish’s out of her position in House leadership earlier this year. But Lee says don’t discount Parrish, who was re-elected last week to a third term in the West Linn district.
“She gets a lot of non-affiliates,” Lee said.

Photo credit: courtesy of the John Davis Facebook page.

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Tim Knopp

State Sen. Tim Knopp was elected in 2012 with nearly 60 percent of the vote in the Bend district 27.

This summer he moved into a leadership role, serving now as deputy caucus leader of the Senate Republicans. Knopp has a long history in Oregon politics. He served in the House from 1995 to 2005, serving as House Majority Leader in 2003.

He’s oft-quoted in the media, works on recruiting candidates and is often in the forefront of public issues.

“Knopp can come across as neo-conservative, but his reputation inside the Capitol would be better described as a business conservative. His manner is direct and his approach to issues leans more toward getting something done than toeing an ideological line,” Oregon Insider, a blog for state lobbying firm CFM, stated in July.

“When he was elected to the Senate, there was little doubt among political insiders that Knopp would ascend in the GOP leadership. Some speculated he might try to elbow out Senate Republican Leader Ted Ferrioli. Instead, Knopp has bided his time and accepted a role — recruiting candidates — that usually is rewarded with the top job if your candidates win,” the blog statees.

Photo credit: courtesy of the Tim Knopp website.