Scott Bruun: Could Marco Rubio Win Oregon?

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Scott Bruun, GoLocalPDX MINDSETTER™

Jeb Bush was in Portland last night, here for a dinner fundraiser. I’m sure the event was a smashing success, and I am among those who wish Bush well in his quest for the presidency. Though as the cost to attend Tuesday’s dinner was roughly the same as a year of college tuition for one of my kids, Jeb will have to wait to hear me personally pledge my support.

My oldest daughter’s freshman year in college is still safe. For now.

The former Florida governor will make a good candidate. He clearly demonstrated his chops as governor, orchestrating reforms in public education that transformed Florida’s schools from some of the worst to among the nation’s best. Bush also proved himself under trial-by-fire, effectively leading his state from the front-line during Hurricane Katrina.

Even at this stage, Bush has a local edge. He is working with the best political fundraiser in Oregon, and has already secured support from some of the who’s who of Portland Republicans. All of this, not to mention advantages in organization and access that comes from his last name, make Bush a formidable candidate for 2016.

Jeb Bush may be our next president. But despite his local fundraising success, he would almost certainly lose on the Oregon ballot. It’s unlikely that the obtuse, anti-all-things-Bush reflex among Oregon’s urban electorate will evolve anytime soon. The Bush backlash, like the dream of the 90s, lives on in Portlandia.

Truth be told, it’s hard for any Republican to win in Oregon - whether a state-wide candidate for senator or governor, or a GOP presidential nominee. Yet the case can be made that the Republican with the best chance of winning Oregon’s seven electoral votes is the other guy from Florida, Senator Marco Rubio.

Marco Rubio is a young, attractive and energetic candidate. If Rubio won, he would be 45 years old on inaugural day. This would make him the third youngest president to serve, following Theodore Roosevelt (42 years old) and JFK (43); and just a little ahead of Bill Clinton (46) and Barack Obama (47).

In an age where almost nothing happens in the media unless accompanied by a video, Rubio’s age will serve him well. Though as Ronald Reagan proved, physical age isn’t all of it. Youthful energy and optimism, almost despite physical age, is what people find most appealing. Rubio has this type of exuberance in spades. He smiles, he listens and he engages. Most importantly he voices optimism about America and Americans. Optimism that’s not only well-founded, but will also prove a key ingredient in attracting independent voters and a segment of Democrats in Oregon.

Rubio is arguably the best contrast candidate that Republicans can offer – especially if Hillary Clinton is the Democrats’ nominee. His relative youth, Latino heritage and telegenic family (including four young children) give him side-by-side advantages over Clinton. Rubio is also a capable communicator, and would certainly hold his own on a shared stage. In other words, in a televised contest, Rubio has many of the advantages that JFK had during the 1960 debates. Clinton, on the other hand, now has some very real Nixonian disadvantages.

Rubio is the underdog. It may be premature to speak of him in contrast to Hillary. He has to first win the GOP nomination, no small task. The big money campaigns of a Jeb Bush, Scott Walker or Chris Christie, and the big media campaigns of a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, will be hard to overcome.

Still, if Marco Rubio were to become the GOP’s presidential nominee, he’ll play well in Oregon. His energy, inclusive messaging, optimism and advocacy of real-world solutions for real-world problems are the missing ingredients in Oregon politics. In just one example of solutions, Rubio has teamed up with our Senator Ron Wyden to offer students and parents a comprehensive web tool to help make the best and most affordable decisions with college. A small thing on the world-stage perhaps, but still important to many Oregonians.

When it’s all said and done, it would still be hard for Rubio to win Oregon – he is a Republican, after all. Yet even putting Oregon “in play,” something that hasn’t happened for sixteen years, will have positive impacts. It would give other Republican candidates in Oregon a needed boost. It would also force Oregon Democrats to be a little less complacent in their treatment of the Oregon electorate.

Imagine that. An election where both sides had to work to earn voter support, and an election where neither side could assume an easy victory. That would be a win for Oregon.

Scott Bruun is a fifth-generation Oregonian and recovering politician. He lives with his family in the 'burbs', yet dutifully commutes to Portland every day where he earns his living in public affairs with Hubbell Communications.