“The Sunday Political Brunch”—November 20, 2016
Sunday, November 20, 2016
“Basket Full of Deplorables” – It’s okay to attack the other candidate, because that’s just how politics works. A Republican candidate calls a Democratic candidate a name, and vice versa. But, when you attack the other candidate’s supporters it’s a whole different story, and often it backfires. This year, when Hillary Clinton referred to half of Trump’s supporters as a “basket full of deplorables,” it failed badly. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney said, “All right, there are 47 percent who are with him [Obama], who are dependent upon government…who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.” Lesson: It’s okay to insult your opposing candidate, but when you insult the people who actually vote, it can often be political suicide. It does not play well with independent, undecided, or wavering voters.
“Senate Owes Trump” -- A lot of establishment Republicans wanted nothing to do with Donald Trump, and some openly opposed him. But here’s an unmistakable reality from Election Day. Republicans owe control of the Senate to Trump. Yes, Republicans in Florida and Ohio won reelection on their own, without Trump’s help. But in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidates won with great help from Trump’s coattails. If not for Trump, Democrats would have seized control of the U.S. Senate. Watch Cabinet appointments, judgeships, and treaties. The Senate is in Trump’s debt, and he’ll try to cash in!
“House-Keeping” – On the other hand – and this could be troublesome for Trump - the House owes him nothing. Sure, the Republicans lost six seats, but they still hold a big majority. By the way, don’t buy the line about the perceived split or major gulf between Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan. Ryan had to distance himself from Trump so he could help local Congressional candidates win. It was about Ryan holding his own majority in the House. Newt Gingrich did a similar thing in 1996, openly advising more liberal House Republicans, like Rep. Scott Klug (R-WI) and Rep. Tom Campbell (R-CA), to run ads against Newt - if need be - to show their independence. Gingrich still needed them to win – to hold his majority - and his strategy worked.
“The Priebus-Pence Ticket” – Yes, I know the ticket was Trump-Pence, but the real duo to watch is the ticket of Reince Priebus – the incoming White House Chief of Staff – and Vice President Mike Pence. Donald Trump is one of the few Presidents this nation has elected who has never held any other elective office. But the government is not run by the White House alone; Congress and the Federal Courts are the other legs of the barstool. Pence served 12 years in the U.S. House, rising to the fourth-ranking leadership position. Priebus headed the Republican National Committee for six years, and is close to his fellow Wisconsinite, Speaker Paul Ryan. The Priebus-Pence team will be formidable shepherding legislation through Congress.
“Protests Will Fade” -- They are mad about the outcome: Trump won the Electoral College, while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. I understand the gut-wrenching emotion that brings. But the anger won’t sustain itself. You need an issue to hang your hat on. No one is claiming voter fraud, ballot rigging, voting by the dead, voter intimidation, or any of the other nefarious anti-voter behaviors we often hear about in a close election. Short of any substantive allegations of wrongdoing, the election outcome has finality (though not popular to many), and it stands. People will vent until they get tired, or it’s too cold to be outside.
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“2018 Road Map” – If Democrats thought they had a bad night in 2016, it may only get worse. In 2018, Democrats are defending 25 Senate seats (their own 23 and the two independents who caucus with them), while Republicans only defend eight seats. Even though the party out of power in the White House usually gains seats in Congress in the midterm elections, the disproportional number of Democrats defending seats in the Senate does not bode well for the minority party.
“Cheeseheads Rule!” – Okay, I admit my bias as I grew up in Wisconsin, and it will always be home to me. But it may have the most political clout of any state in the nation right now. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) is Speaker of the House. Kenosha resident Reince Priebus is RNC Chairman and future White House Chief of Staff. Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) is now Chairman of the Republican Governors Association. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) won reelection on a night everyone predicted he’d lose, thus helping the GOP hold control of the Senate. And, Federal Court of Appeals Judge Diane Sykes is on Trump’s short list of nominees for the U.S. Supreme Court. My only wish is that all this “Cheesehead Power” could somehow help the Green Bay Packers win a few more games and get to the Super Bowl this season!
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