Portland’s Best Chance To Beat The Clippers Isn’t Who You Might Think

Friday, April 22, 2016

Casey Mabbott, Oregon Sports News

On February 18th, one day before Portland trounced the defending champions in their first game back from the all-star break, GM Neil Olshey made the executive decision to waive the one man who might be able to help the Trail Blazers dig their way out of the 0-2 hole they face against the Clippers and their monstrous front court.

Currently Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis, and Noah Vonleh are getting routinely beaten on both ends of the court on the boards and the score board by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, one of the toughest front court duos in the league. And the one Blazer who would have been able to stop them from steam rolling the Blazers is now in Houston, but not in the way you might think.

While Olshey had no way of knowing he would lose Meyers Leonard a month later, this team may have lost this series two months ago when the team waived veteran center Anderson Varejao, now with the Warriors and taking on the Rockets. A double-double machine when healthy and perfectly capable of defending Griffin and Jordan, Varejao might be just the thing this team is missing as they struggle to keep up with the physically and mentally imposing Clippers squad.

Plumlee is simply not athletic enough to keep up with Griffin on offense, and not quick enough to make Jordan pay on defense. Davis made comments before the series began that the Clippers were the team he hoped to face and that Portland was the most dangerous team in the playoffs. So far those comments have proven to be meaningless at best, and at worst, bulletin board material for Griffin and Jordan who are destroying Portland in the paint.

Since Olshey, head coach Terry Stotts, and star point guard Damian Lillard arrived in Portland in 2012, the Trail Blazers have a 6-10 record in the playoffs with just one series win, the team’s lone appearance in the second round of the playoffs since the 2000 season. This series isn’t looking great, but it’s not the first time the Blazers have been in a deep hole in the postseason, and they have found ways to climb out against the odds in the past.

This really should not come as a surprise, but Portland just does not match up well with the Clippers. In 4 regular season games, LA took the series 3-1, winning 102-87, 109-98, and 96-94. Portland’s lone win was a 102-91 victory in November. The Clippers have now won 5 straight against Portland, taking game 1 of their current playoff series 115-95 and followed that up by taking game 2 in a 101-82 victory.

If they were being competitive in this series things would look different, and who knows, maybe Portland changes things up this weekend and turns it around. For now the fact is, Portland looks lost and outclassed playing against LA. Their offense isn’t just struggling, it hasn’t even shown up yet. One might ask where the team is that averaged 105.1 points during the regular season, and when we will see them in a game against LA. The season series may be more telling than folks would like to admit, as LA held Portland below its season average three of four games, and has now continued that trend in to the postseason. If this is the team they wanted, you might wonder where the play is to back it up.

Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan continue to harass Lillard all over the court, and after averaging 24 points on 42% shooting during the regular season, Lillard is shooting just 34% in this series, for 19 points per game. While his points are still up there, he is not being nearly as efficient, hitting less and less shots close to the rim, and is shotting just 3-14 from beyond the arc. Lillard is obviously in a funk, and he’s going to need more than just a home game to get things going. He’s going to need a team, but more than that, he’s going to need his team.

Which leads us to the grand question of where in the world did CJ McCollum disappear to? CJ averaged 20 points on 45% shooting in the regular season, including 42% from downtown. So far in this series he is putting up 12 points per game on 32% shooting, and hitting just 25% of his shots from beyond the arc. If Portland’s best scorers cannot get their game going, there are not a lot of other options to be had and this season might be over in a hurry. Lillard is getting hounded wherever he goes, and CJ is being guarded by a longer and taller defender, but one or both of them have got to figure out a way to get past the defense and score some buckets.

Watching this series you know that it’s far from over, and the Blazers will give it their best effort and probably win a game or two. But you can easily see how a guy like Varejao could give this team a boost where they need it most. Facing a mediocre front court and a small back court, Clippers coach Doc Rivers has decided he will harass Lillard and CJ with his best defenders and let the Blazers role players beat him. So far, he’s up 2-0 and it’s not even close.

A win at home tomorrow night would certainly help, and it might be time to shake up the rotation(s) to get things going, a Terry Stotts specialty this season. Big ball clearly isn’t working, so maybe it’s time to go with a lineup more common in college and one that suits Portland. Stop calling Plumlee and Davis centers, because that’s not what they are. Don’t try to beat LA at their own game, make the game your own.

Since you don’t have the big bodies to throw at LA, start getting smaller and smaller. Use guard heavy lineups and switch forwards on Jordan and Griffin so no one gets too tired or in too much foul trouble. Force LA to use a smaller lineup and score in bunches, something they’re not known for. They are a grinding team, Portland is not. Use your energy and play up tempo. We know the officials like to blow the whistle on Portland, and prefer to keep the play stopping noise makers in their pocket when Griffin, Paul, or Jordan get “creative” with the rules, so the grinding option without a quality center just isn’t going to happen against the Clippers.

Portland has had problems in their last three playoff series against physically and mentally tougher teams, and so far the results have been the same, regardless of who is on the court.

Tomorrow night that could change, or Portland could be one game closer to the first playoff defeat of the Lillard era. This team went miles farther than anyone expected them to in the regular season, but now it’s time to see if they can avoid being embarrassed while their opposition turns up the heat. Lillard was the guy all season, but now he looks like just another guy. If he wants to prove that he and CJ are what this team needs, and not LaMarcus Aldridge or Anderson Varejao, he needs to prove it in the win column, at home, on his court. Lillard is a quiet guy, but it’s time for him to get mad, and to get loud. And it’s time for CJ to show up, he earned the starting shooting guard spot, now it’s time to do something with it when it counts most. Portland doesn’t need to win this series, but they need to believe and show that they can win a game or two against a superior opponent. If nothing else, it will give them a lot of hunger and confidence going in to next season.

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Portland’s Best Chance To Beat The Clippers Isn’t Who You Might Think

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