What Will Decide the 2016 Race for Mayor?

Monday, January 04, 2016

Brendan Murray, GoLocalPDX Contributor

Ted Wheeler

Now that the calendar has turned to 2016, only a few short months stand between Portland voters and the Mayoral Election. After a long period without a true race, Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey challenged Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler in the election.

Experts told GoLocal that despite running against one another, the two candidates have much in common. As a result, the election will be based on which candidate voters feel will be able to provide strong leadership to a city in desperate need of it, rather than an ideological struggle.

“I think that because they are both newcomers to the campaign and neither are incumbents, they will need to build a better report with the voters,” Rebecca Tweed, Political and Communications Director for State Street Solutions, told GoLocal. “The challenge that Wheeler and Bailey will have is drawing very firm distinctions between the two of them.”

Jim Moore, Director of the Tom McCall Center for Public Policy, told GoLocal that he thinks the a series of forums announced in December will be compelling and influential in the race.

“What’s going to happen is we’re going to see the candidates try to differentiate themselves and their expertise, their personalities and their actual plans to solve these same problems,” Moore said. “It’s going to be fascinating because there’s agreement on what problems need to be solved, it’s just how you solve them.”

In Bailey’s Corner

Internal polling released by the Bailey campaign indicated that he held a slight lead over Wheeler as of December. While the Wheeler campaign quickly tried to discredit the poll, Tweed said that it was “reliable.”

“The poll results don’t come as a surprise me,” Tweed said. “It was clear that Bailey entering the race increased the profile of the campaign, and his announcement-to-announce brought in a new energy and momentum to a mayoral campaign that was in a bit of lull without a serious challenger for Wheeler.It seems reliable to me at this stage – a small lead within the margin of error and a large enough sample seems like a reliable poll.”

Moore said that he believes Bailey will have to court some of the city’s more liberal voters in order to have a chance at taking down Wheeler.

“Bailey brings electoral success to the race. He knows how to run a campaign, raise money, and craft a message. He also has people who have worked on his previous campaigns,” Moore said. “He needs to mobilize a lot of more leftist liberals, many of whom will be quite happy with Wheeler's candidacy. In addition, he needs to show he can raise a significant amount of money to get his message out to the entire city.”

Tweed also said that Portland voters’ familiarity with Bailey will serve him well.

“Besides experience with policy-making and leadership within the immediate Portland community already, Bailey has strong connections with voters because he is familiar to them,” Tweed said. “He likely has a database of grassroots support that Wheeler does not and that will give him an advantage in gaining momentum and having a strong outreach campaign.”

What Wheeler’s Got Going

Despite Bailey’s recent surge, Moore said the race remains Wheeler’s to lose.

“Wheeler is still the prohibitive favorite to win outright in the May primary,” Moore said. “In terms of issues, it is hard to see what angle he would go for that would significantly differentiate him from Wheeler.”

Tweed agreed. She said that while poll results are a positive sign for Bailey, she did not expect them to alter the Wheeler campaign’s plans.

“They’ve been running a steady campaign and a candidate like Bailey coming in will bring a certain surge of interest and momentum, and that’s normal,” Tweed said. “I imagine Wheeler’s team will continue with their strategy and focus on their campaign’s direction.”

Moore said he expects Wheeler to lean on his experience as treasurer to win the election.

“Wheeler will undoubtedly lean on his experience as Treasurer and as County Commissioner,” Moore said. “He will try to use that to highlight his strengths as opposed to Bailey’s.”

Tweed agreed. She said Wheeler would look to flex his economic muscle on nut only issues dealing with the business side of Portland.

“I think economic development is going to be right up his alley and in fact, he will probably try to frame a lot of the issues through economic development,” Tweed said. “I think his understanding of finances and business is going to be a big boost for him.”

Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall

Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler was joined by the press and many close friends, family members, and supporters on the rooftop of Revolution Hall off of SE Stark so that he could officially make his candidacy announcement for Portland mayor in the 2016 mayoral race.

What Will Decide the 2016 Race for Mayor?

In Bailey’s Corner

What Wheeler’s Got Going

Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall

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